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Donkey Votes, Rednecks & The Federal Election Prediction

by The Wrinkle | August 20, 2010

With all the current spin and activity out there surrounding the election, it’s interesting to see where people are putting their money. Labour is still paying $1.50 to the Coalition's $2.98 and someone during the week put $200k on Labour through Sportsbet at $1.50. The equal spread is minus 3 seats to Labour.

Regardless of comments about name positioning on cards, donkey votes, rednecks and the lowest common denominator, the Wrinkle has a little more respect for the general intelligence level of people than the politicians or the media. Australia has a good education system, and amongst all of the developed countries seems to have one of the largest followings of economic news among the general population.

Remember how there used to be calls to pay politicians more so that you attracted the best and the brightest? The Wrinkle would suggest that (inclusive of benefits) they are now reasonably compensated, and that strategy seems to have worked really well! Perhaps now it’s so good, it’s more a case of ruthlessly holding onto your job.

As a general rule I think it’s fair to say that people don’t trust politicians that much, regardless of whether they are red, blue, green, wet or dry. It’s more a case that you put up with them and hope they don’t stuff things up too much. Occasionally, you get the odd gem in the rough who makes you want to believe in the system again, (the Wrinkle has a soft spot for Clover Moore who he thinks has, on the whole, done a great job for inner Sydney) but unfortunately mediocrity appears to be far more common.

In a somewhat perverse way, both of yesterday's men in both Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull seem to typify integrity much more than the current incumbents. [you got that part right - Ed]

Coming back to where I started with common sense and balance. Short of a miracle, State Labour is so on the nose with the NSW electorate that losing power is pretty much a given at the next election in March. Historically the electorate prefers different parties at State and Federal levels. One would assume this is in the hope that the clowns balance each other out to a degree, and major swings to the left or right are averted.

With that in mind, The Wrinkle believes that the swing away from Labour in NSW will end up being far less than anticipated, Barry O’Farrell doesn’t rank that highly in the electorate, and I just can’t see people wanting to bring home a Federal/State team of Tony Abbott and Barry O’Farrell. If NSW does hold up, Kevin Rudd has done enough to staunch the bleeding in Queensland, and Labour will get back in.

Which is all leading me into my next prediction, The Wrinkle will go out on a limb, and pick Labour to be re-elected on Saturday with a majority of more than 5 seats.

A brief note on the markets. As indicated, the US markets have largely fought themselves to a standstill between the economic bears and earnings bulls. With US quarterly earnings results coming to an end, The Wrinkle would expect the bears to hold sway over the coming months, particularly with China deliberately slowing down its economy.

Enjoy your entertainment on Saturday night, as taxpayers you’ve paid for a good show. Go the All Blacks in South Africa, and if any of you followed The Wrinkle's Test Cricket betting strategy as previously outlined, you should all be smiling with Pakistan’s first day’s result.

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